The Transatlantic Rift
Perhaps the most significant driver of European rearmament is the growing isolation from Washington. A U.S. national security strategy published in December 2025 described Europe not as a protégé, but as a “weakened partner.” The message from the “America First” establishment is clear: by 2027, Europe is expected to handle the bulk of its own conventional defense.
The 2025 NATO summit in The Hague saw a desperate agreement to aim for 5% of GDP in defense spending by 2035, a target that seems nearly impossible for many debt-laden European economies. This perceived abandonment has led to a sharp diplomatic pushback. EU leaders like António Costa and Kaja Kallas have begun asserting a “strategic autonomy,” rejecting the idea that Washington should dictate Europe’s internal politics or migration policies. The transatlantic alliance, once the bedrock of global stability, is being replaced by a more transactional and wary partnership.
