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The Strategic Calculus of Preemption
The decision to strike was born out of a specific strategic calculation: that the cost of a nuclear-armed Iran was higher than the cost of a regional war. However, the long-term validity of that calculation remains to be seen. If the strikes successfully delayed the program by several years without igniting a general conflagration, they may be viewed by history as a harsh but necessary corrective. If, however, they serve as the catalyst for a wider war that draws in proxy forces across Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Syria, they may be seen as the ultimate strategic blunder.
