Many people around the world have made huge amounts of money betting on the war in Iran — and now politicians and watchdogs are sounding the alarm.👇🏻⬇️more in the 1rst comments ⬇️👇🏻

Two of the most prominent platforms involved in the Iran case were:

Polymarket — a largely offshore, cryptocurrency-based market where users can bet on almost any conceivable outcome.

Kalshi — a U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated platform that offers prediction contracts tied to real-world events but tries to avoid markets tied directly to death or violence.

These platforms saw unprecedented volumes related to geopolitical events tied to U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran, especially around the late-February 2026 strikes.

One Polymarket contract asked whether the United States would strike Iran by Feb. 28, 2026 — and as the weekend approached, activity surged. Other markets tracked whether Iran’s Supreme Leader would be removed or killed, when the first strike would occur, and whether expanded ground operations might follow.