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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shattered long-standing assumptions about security on the European continent. At the same time, political signals from Washington have grown increasingly clear: Europe must take greater responsibility for its own defence.

European leaders now find themselves caught between two imperatives—deterring future aggression while maintaining unity at home.
EU leaders agreed last December on a new €90 billion loan package to support Ukraine. Meanwhile, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a series of defence initiatives aimed at strengthening Europe’s deterrence capacity by 2030.

These moves come amid stark rhetoric. On 2 December, Vladimir Putin stated that Russia was prepared to fight if necessary and warned there would be “no one left to negotiate with.”
Around the same time, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte issued a blunt assessment: “We are Russia’s next target.” He warned that an attack on NATO territory could occur within the next five years.
Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius echoed these concerns, stating that Europe may have already experienced its “last summer of peace.”