Many people around the world have made huge amounts of money betting on the war in Iran — and now politicians and watchdogs are sounding the alarm.👇🏻⬇️more in the 1rst comments ⬇️👇🏻

One of the biggest red flags was the timing of some of these bets. On several Polymarket contracts, the most lucrative stakes were placed just hours before the official public announcement of the military strikes, leading observers to ask whether some traders might have had access to non-public information.

In financial markets — like stocks and commodities — trading on insider information is illegal in most major jurisdictions. Similar rules don’t currently apply to many offshore prediction markets. Critics argue that the same logic should apply here: using advance military information for financial gain is ethically dubious and potentially illegal.

B. Profiting From Conflict and Death
Another layer of controversy revolved around the types of contracts offered — and the moral implications of betting on outcomes like death or regime change.

On Kalshi, a market on whether Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be “out of office” by March 31 drew tens of millions in volume. However, when Khamenei was reported killed in the conflict, Kalshi froze payouts and cited internal rules prohibiting profit from death events — angering many users who felt cheated.